Study Design Outline to Examine Potential Impacts of the Proposed Menthol Ban in Combustible Tobacco Products

Objective

The policy proposal outlined here is to ban menthol flavor in combustible cigarettes nationally in the United States, with the goal of reducing combustible cigarette smoking rates. “Tobacco control efforts have resulted in an overall decline in cigarette smoking. However, this overall decline masks an increasing trend in menthol cigarette use” (Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration, 2011). On April 28, 2022, the US Food and Drug Administration announced a proposed rule change to ban menthol flavoring in all combustible tobacco product (“FDA Proposes Rules Prohibiting Menthol Cigarettes and Flavored Cigars to Prevent Youth Initiation, Significantly Reduce Tobacco-Related Disease and Death,” 2022). Previous research has predicted that a menthol ban in cigarettes would slow the rate at which adolescents become smokers and reduce smoking rates in current smokers (Buckell, Marti, & Sindelar, 2018; Levy et al., 2011). This proposal to ban menthol flavor in combustible cigarettes will have many consequences, including a potentially increased use of e-cigarettes. This study would provide policy-relevant estimates on the effects of the menthol flavor ban on combustible cigarettes. Based on previous literature asking preferences and what people would do in that situation, it appears the smoking of combustible cigarettes would go down while use of e-cigarettes would go up (Buckell et al., 2018; Levy et al…